Hurricane Irene is likely to be the most impactful hurricane to hit the East Coast in at least several decades! The latest computer model guidance confirms this extraordinary threat and the first hurricane warnings and hurricane watches have been issued for the East Coast.
It all starts with Hurricane Irene's incredible wind field. As of Thursday evening, tropical storm-force winds were up to 430 miles wide! This is the distance from Baltimore to Portland, Maine!
Let's lay out all the potential threats and timing involved with Hurricane Irene.
High winds
Hurricane Irene's tropical storm-force wind field is larger than both Hurricane Ike (2008) and Hurricane Katrina (2005) at maximum size!
Reason again not to focus solely on the path of the center of circulation, although it is around and especially east of the eye where the strongest winds will be.
Our graphic below highlights the general area of wind damage threat from Hurricane Irene. As you can see, a large swath of the Northeast may see widespread power outages and downed trees.
High winds
Hurricane Irene's tropical storm-force wind field is larger than both Hurricane Ike (2008) and Hurricane Katrina (2005) at maximum size!
Reason again not to focus solely on the path of the center of circulation, although it is around and especially east of the eye where the strongest winds will be.
Our graphic below highlights the general area of wind damage threat from Hurricane Irene. As you can see, a large swath of the Northeast may see widespread power outages and downed trees.
Heavy rain/flood threat
It's already been a wet August in the Northeast.
Philadelphia already had its wettest single month on record, breaking a record from Sep. 1999, which included heavy rain from Hurricane Floyd passing to the east.
New York City may also break their previous wettest month record dating back to 1882!
Hurricane Irene (latest forecast) will produce a strip of heavy rainfall along and just to the west of the path of the center of circulation from eastern North Carolina to New England.
It's already been a wet August in the Northeast.
Philadelphia already had its wettest single month on record, breaking a record from Sep. 1999, which included heavy rain from Hurricane Floyd passing to the east.
New York City may also break their previous wettest month record dating back to 1882!
Hurricane Irene (latest forecast) will produce a strip of heavy rainfall along and just to the west of the path of the center of circulation from eastern North Carolina to New England.
Hurricane Irene's center is now expected to track close or even a little inland of the Jersey Shore into southern New England, that places New York City and southern New England on the eastern semicircle of the circulation, meaning significant storm surge flooding is expected in these vulnerable locations! Coastal flooding would also begin well ahead of the arrival of the center of Irene from North Carolina to New England.
You can see that on the computer model image below. Note: the image below is not an official forecast, and the forecast is subject to change.
You can see that on the computer model image below. Note: the image below is not an official forecast, and the forecast is subject to change.
The Bottom Line: Storm surge threat timing
- Saturday: Outer Banks
- Late Saturday: Virginia Tidewater, Delmarva Peninsula
- Saturday night/Sunday: N.J. shore, NYC/Long Island
- Sunday/Sunday night: Coastal New England
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